{"id":12126,"date":"2019-09-20T10:00:51","date_gmt":"2019-09-20T07:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/?p=12126"},"modified":"2019-09-19T14:40:09","modified_gmt":"2019-09-19T11:40:09","slug":"regression-analysis-of-economic-consequences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/regression-analysis-of-economic-consequences\/","title":{"rendered":"Openko I., Tsvyakh O., Regression Analysis of Economic Consequences of Forest Fire in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

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JEL Classification<\/strong>: C 35; C 53; Q 00; Q 23.<\/span><\/td>\nDOI<\/b>: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V16(2019)-19<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Openko Ivan<\/strong>, PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Department of Geodesy and Cartography, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine<\/p>\n

ORCID ID<\/strong>: 0000-0003-2810-0778<\/a>
\ne-mail<\/strong>: ivan_openko@ukr.net<\/a><\/p>\n

Tsvyakh Oleg<\/strong>, PhD (Economics), Lecturer at the Department of Land Cadastre, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine<\/p>\n

ORCID ID<\/strong>: 0000-0001-9284-2966<\/a>
\ne-mail<\/strong>: 2231738@i.ua<\/a><\/p>\n

Regression Analysis of Economic Consequences of Forest Fire in Ukraine<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

Abstract. Introduction<\/strong>. The problem of forest fires, the numerous environmental and economic losses they cause, has in recent years attracted particular attention in the context of the increasing impact of global processes such as global forest decline, numerous biodiversity loss, global climate change and land use change. All this is related to the complexity and ambiguity of the impact of forest fires on forest land, the environment and the safe living conditions of the population in the settlements (united territorial communities) located near the forests.<\/p>\n

Purpose<\/strong>. Implementation of economic and mathematical modeling of negative effects of forest fires in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Results<\/strong>. According to the results of the calculations, forest fires are not the main reason for the decrease of the tree cover in Ukraine, although the area of forest land covered by the fires is very significant. For the period 2001 \u2013 2017 the total area of burned land due to forest fires in Ukraine is 88681.0 ha, for example in Austria this figure is 1453.0 ha, Sweden \u2013 17213.0 ha, Finland \u2013 9336.0 ha. According to our analytical calculations, the losses caused by forest fires (for the period 2001 – 2017 \u2013 UAH 506,877 million) mainly depend on the area of forest land covered by fires (R = 0,632) and the volume of burned and damaged forest on the stump (R = 0,956). In order to promptly assess the damage caused by forest fires, we proposed a regression model, the adequacy of which is confirmed by the Fisher criterion of 107,659, and the coefficient of determination R\u00b2 = 0,923.<\/p>\n

Conclusions<\/strong>. Given the current dynamics, the cyclicality of the negative effects of forest fires, we predicted the area of forest land covered by forest fires, the amount of burned (damaged) forest on the stump, and damage caused by forest fires by 2030. According to the calculations, we have established that for the period 2019 \u2013 2030 in Ukraine, the total estimated area of forest land covered by fires will be 49,991 thousand hectares, the total volume of burned and damaged forest on the stump \u2013 4,086 million m3, damage caused by forest fires \u2013 906,211 million UAH, or UAH 1.817 billion \u2013 considering the consumer price index for 2018.<\/p>\n

Keywords<\/strong>: regression analysis, correlation coefficient, forest land, land use, forest fires.<\/p>\n

References:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
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    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Received:<\/strong> 16 August 2019<\/p>\n

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    Openko I., Tsvyakh O., (2019). Regression Analysis of Economic Consequences of Forest Fire in Ukraine. Modern Economics<\/em>, 16(2019), 127-134. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V16(2019)-19.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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    [vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] JEL Classification: C 35; C 53; Q 00; Q 23. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V16(2019)-19 [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text] Openko Ivan, PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Department of Geodesy and Cartography, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2810-0778 e-mail: ivan_openko@ukr.net Tsvyakh Oleg, PhD (Economics), Lecturer at the Department of Land Cadastre, National
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