{"id":18819,"date":"2024-02-05T09:35:14","date_gmt":"2024-02-05T07:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/?p=18819"},"modified":"2024-02-08T10:13:42","modified_gmt":"2024-02-08T08:13:42","slug":"the-structure-of-the-ukrainian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/the-structure-of-the-ukrainian\/","title":{"rendered":"Vlasenko L. The Structure of the Ukrainian Foreign Trade and its Development after the Russian Invasion"},"content":{"rendered":"

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JEL Classification<\/strong>: F10, F13, F19
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		DOI<\/b>: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V42(2023)-03<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Vlasenko<\/strong> Lev, <\/strong>Ph.D. (Economics), Visiting Professor of Business Administration Department, State University of New York at Potsdam (SUNY Potsdam), United States<\/p>\n

ORCID ID:<\/strong> 0000-0002-7723-1734<\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>vlasenl@potsdam.edu<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

The Structure of the Ukrainian Foreign Trade and its Development after the Russian Invasion<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract. Introduction<\/strong>. The Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022 not only disrupted existing international markets and dealt a severe blow to the post-COVID recovery of the global economy, but also highlighted Ukraine’s role as a supplier of food and agricultural commodities. Following the start of the invasion, numerous articles were published by international organizations and independent scholars attempting to predict or model the impact of the war on food prices, exploring worst-case scenarios of global or local food shortages or even famine. However, most of the research on this topic has focused on the impact of disrupted trade on the global food market and its effect on the economies of Third World countries in Africa and Asia. In contrast, the impact of the war on the Ukrainian economy is often overlooked.<\/p>\n

Purpose.<\/strong> The article aims to analyze contemporary international trade in Ukraine and structural changes in Ukrainian export and import patterns after the annexation of Crimea and the Donbass conflict in 2014, and after the start of the Russian invasion in 2022. The article aims to identify possible threats and provide recommendations to minimize the negative impact of trade on the Ukrainian economy. The author used several methods to achieve these goals, including the quantitative analysis of export and import flows, the decomposition of exports at the technology level, the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, and the Trade Complementarity Index for Ukraine and the European Union.<\/p>\n

Results.<\/strong> The conducted analysis proves the serious changes in Ukrainian trade patterns due to the collapse of several industries caused by the Russian aggression and the increasing role of agriculture and food industry, which will shape the future of the Ukrainian economy in the next decade.<\/p>\n

Conclusion.<\/strong> To fully realize its potential as a producer and exporter of agricultural products, Ukraine must liberate the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts. The renewal of Ukraine’s foreign trade is possible only by liberating the coastal regions of southern Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> International trade; Export structure; Revealed Comparative Advantage; Trade Complementarity Index; Ukraine.<\/p>\n

References:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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  1. Babets, I. (2022). Zovnishn’otorhovel’na bezpeka rehioniv Ukrayiny: vnutrishni ta zovnishni zahrozy v umovakh voyennoho stanu [Foreign trade security of Ukraine\u2019s regions: internal and external threats under martial law]. Rehional’na ekonomika, Regional Economy, 104(2), 101-10. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.36818\/1562-0905-2022-2-11. [in Ukrainian].<\/li>\n
  2. Saliy, Y & Saliy, O. (2023). Zm\u0456ni u zovn\u0456\u0161n\u02b9oekonom\u0456\u010dn\u0456j d\u0456jal\u02b9nost\u0456 Ukra\u0457ni v umovah v\u0456jni [Changes in the foreign economic activities of Ukraine in the conditions of war]. Aktual\u02b9n\u0456 problemi rozvitku ekonom\u0456ki reg\u0456onu. \u017durnal strateg\u0456\u010dnih ekonom\u0456\u010dnih dosl\u0456d\u017een [Journal of Strategic Economic Research], 3(14), 58\u201371. doi: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.30857\/2786-5398.2023.3.6. [in Ukrainian].<\/li>\n
  3. Verbytska, H. (2023). Problemi v\u0456t\u010diznjanih eksporter\u0456v v umovah voennogo \u010dasu [Problems of domestic exporters in wartime conditions]. The actual problems of regional economy development, 19(1), 167-176. doi: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15330\/apred.1.19.167-176. [in Ukrainian].<\/li>\n
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  5. World Trade Organization (WTO). (2022). The Crisis in Ukraine: Implications of the war for global trade and development\u201d Assessment note, Geneva. Retrieved August 15, 2023, from https:\/\/www.wto.org\/english\/res_e\/publications_e\/oneyukr_e.htm<\/li>\n
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  8. State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2023). Official website. Retrieved August 15, 2023, from http:\/\/www.ukrstat.gov.ua.<\/li>\n
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  10. Balassa, B. (1965). Trade Liberalization and Revealed Comparative Advantage. The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 33, 99-123. doi: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x<\/li>\n
  11. Mikic, M. & Gilbert, J. (2007). Trade Statistics in Policymaking: A Handbook of Commonly Used Trade Indices and Indicators. Bangkok: United Nations ESCAP.<\/li>\n
  12. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2023). Official web-site. Retrieved August 15, 2023, from https:\/\/stats.oecd.org\/<\/li>\n
  13. Spectrum News NY1 (2023). A deal to expedite grain exports has been reached between Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania. Retrieved October 3, 2023, from https:\/\/ny1.com\/nyc\/all-boroughs\/ap-top-news\/2023\/10\/03\/a-deal-to-expedite-grain-exports-has-been-reached-between-ukraine-poland-and-lithuania<\/li>\n
  14. World Coal magazine (2015). Ukrainian coal: an industry in crisis (2015). Retrieved August 15, 2023, from https:\/\/www.worldcoal.com\/special-reports\/10092015\/ukrainian-coal-an-industry-in-crisis-2383b\/<\/li>\n
  15. SteelOrbis (2023). Ukraine’s steel output down 70% in 2022 after the Russian invasion. Retrieved August 15, 2023, from https:\/\/www.steelorbis.com\/steel-news\/latest-news\/ukraines-steel-output-down-70-in-2022-after-russian-invasion-1274838.htm.<\/li>\n
  16. Kyiv School of Economics (2023). Agricultural War Damages Review. Retrieved October 3, 2023, from https:\/\/kse.ua\/agricultural-war-damages-review\/.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Received:<\/strong> 13 December 2023<\/p>\n

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    Vlasenko L. (2023). The Structure of the Ukrainian Foreign Trade and its Development after the Russian Invasion. Modern Economics, 42(2023), 19-26. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V42(2023)-03.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
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    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<< Back to contents<\/a>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    [vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] JEL Classification: F10, F13, F19 DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V42(2023)-03 [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Vlasenko Lev, Ph.D. (Economics), Visiting Professor of Business Administration Department, State University of New York at Potsdam (SUNY Potsdam), United States ORCID ID: 0000-0002-7723-1734 e-mail: vlasenl@potsdam.edu The Structure of the Ukrainian Foreign Trade and its Development after the Russian Invasion \u00a0\u00a0 Abstract. Introduction. The Russian aggression against
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