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{"id":20038,"date":"2025-04-07T21:28:59","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T18:28:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/?p=20038"},"modified":"2025-04-09T12:01:09","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T09:01:09","slug":"counter-cyclical-adjustment-of-the-key","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/counter-cyclical-adjustment-of-the-key\/","title":{"rendered":"Telnova \u041d. Counter-cyclical Adjustment of the Key Rate During the Crisis: Analysis of the Practice of Countries of the World and Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<table style=\"height: auto; border: solid 1px white!important;\" width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"border: solid 1px white!important;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>JEL Classification: <\/strong>E31; E43; E52; E58.<\/span><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: right; border: solid 1px white!important;\"><b>DOI<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V49(2025)-30\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V49(2025)-30<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<b>Telnova \u041d\u0430nna, <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Business Analytics and Digital Economy, State University \u00abKyiv Aviation Institute\u00bb, Kyiv, Ukraine<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>ORCID ID:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5724-7229\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">0000-0002-5724-7229<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n<strong>e-mail: <\/strong><a href=\"mailto:hanna.telnova@npp.nau.edu.ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hanna.telnova@npp.nau.edu.ua<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><b>Counter-cyclical Adjustment of the Key Rate During the Crisis: Analysis of the Practice of Countries of the World and Ukraine<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><b><i>Abstract. Introduction<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><\/i><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Monetary policy is a powerful tool to regulate or offset the negative effects of the crisis. The lever of the official interest rate has proven its effectiveness in these processes over a long period of time. Particularly noteworthy is the reduction of the key interest rate in times of crisis, which affects economic growth trends and the level of inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Purpose. <\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The purpose of the study is to generalize the experience of the application of countercyclical monetary policy in the countries of the world during the crisis period. The objectives of the study are: to establish the presence of differences in the application of monetary policy during both crises of 2008 and 2020; to state the descriptive characteristics of the effectiveness of monetary policy one year after the crisis; to justify the feasibility of regulating the key rate to overcome the negative consequences of the crisis.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Results. <\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The generalization of the experience of the application of countercyclical monetary policy in 41 countries of the world during the crisis periods of 2008 and 2010 by means of cluster analysis methods allowed to state the trends of the spread of the use of low key interest rates during the pandemic in comparison with the period of the global financial crisis. It was found that the greatest effectiveness in controlling inflation was achieved by the countries with the lowest key rates, but the rates of economic growth in these countries are quite limited. It was found that the timely response of central banks to the unfolding crisis, as well as the maintenance of the policy rate at a low level during the post-crisis year, is important.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Conclusions. <\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taking into account the results obtained, as well as the effective experience of the NBU&#8217;s monetary policy during the pandemic, it is noted that the time lost at the beginning of a full-scale invasion to lower the discount rate was not sufficient. Taking into account the current state of the national economy, as well as the cluster analysis conducted, it seems appropriate to gradually reduce the NBU discount rate to 1-3% and maintain a low rate for a year after the end of hostilities in Ukraine. The practice of countries around the world shows that such a monetary policy during a crisis not only allows to contain inflation, but also contributes to the post-crisis recovery.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Keywords:<\/b> key rate; monetary policy; central bank; inflation; economic growth; crisis.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>References:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2025). Retrieved from https:\/\/www.ukrstat.gov.ua\/<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NBU Raises Key Policy Rate to 25%. (2025). Retrieved from https:\/\/bank.gov.ua\/en\/news\/all\/natsionalniy-bank-ukrayini-pidvischiv-oblikovu-stavku-do-25.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mishkin, F.S. (1995). Symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Journal of Economic Perspectives,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 9(4), 3-10. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1257\/jep.9.4.3<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Holston, K., Laubach, T., &amp; Williams, J. (2017). Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: international trendsand determinants. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Journal of International Economics,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 108, 59\u201375. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jinteco.2017.01.004.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Del Negro, M., Giannone, D., Giannoni, M. P., &amp; Tambalotti, A. (2019). Global trends in interest rates.<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Journal of International Economics,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 118, 248-262. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jinteco.2019.01.010.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rachel, L., &amp; Summers, L. H. (2019). Public boost and private drag: government policy and the equilibrium real interest rate in advanced economies. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, 1-76.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bernanke, B. S. (2020). The New Tools of Monetary Policy. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">American Economic Review,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 110 (4), 943\u201383. DOI: 10.1257\/aer.110.4.943.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Giri, F., Riccetti, L., Russo, A., &amp; Gallegati, M. (2019). Monetary policy and large crises in a financial accelerator agent-based model. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Journal of Economic Behavior &amp; Organization,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 157, 42-58. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jebo.2018.04.007.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Colletaz, G., Levieuge, G., &amp; Popescu, A. (2018). Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 86, 165-184. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jedc.2017.11.001.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chen, M., Wu, J., Bang Nam, J., &amp; Wang, R., (2017). Monetary policy and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Emerging Markets Review,<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> 31, 116-140. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ememar.2017.04.001.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rolim, L., Carvalho, L., &amp; Lang, D. (2024). Monetary policy rules and the inequality-augmented Phillips curve.<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Economic Modelling, <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">139, 106780. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.econmod.2024.106780.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Countryeconomy. (2025). https:\/\/countryeconomy.com\/legal\/about.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<strong>Received:<\/strong> 2<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">8 January 2025<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-sheets-root=\"1\"><div class=\"sdm_download_item \"><div class=\"sdm_download_item_top\"><div class=\"sdm_download_thumbnail\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"sdm_download_thumbnail_image\" src=\"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/pdf.jpg\" alt = \"telnova.pdf\" \/><\/div><div class=\"sdm_download_title\">telnova.pdf<\/div><\/div><div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div><div class=\"sdm_download_description\"><\/div><div class=\"sdm_download_size\"><span class=\"sdm_download_size_label\">Size: <\/span><span class=\"sdm_download_size_value\">0,46<\/span><\/div><div class=\"sdm_download_link\"><span class=\"sdm_download_button\"><a href=\"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/?sdm_process_download=1&download_id=19961\" class=\"sdm_download blue\" title=\"telnova.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Download Now!<\/a><\/span><span class=\"sdm_download_item_count\"><span class=\"sdm_item_count_number\">284<\/span><span class=\"sdm_item_count_string\"> Downloads<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"sdm_clear_float\"><\/div><\/span>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<table style=\"height: auto;\" width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"background-color: #1abc9c; text-transform: uppercase;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center; color: white; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 900; text-transform: uppercase; margin: 0; padding: 13.5px;\">How to quote this article?<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><span data-sheets-root=\"1\">Telnova \u041d. (2025). Counter-cyclical Adjustment of the Key Rate During the Crisis: Analysis of the Practice of Countries of the World and Ukraine. Modern Economics, 49(2025), 234-241. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V49(2025)-30.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<div id=\"tap-translate\"><\/div>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<a href=\"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/issue-47-2024\/\">&lt;&lt; Back to contents<\/a>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] JEL Classification: E31; E43; E52; E58. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V49(2025)-30 [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Telnova \u041d\u0430nna, Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Business Analytics and Digital Economy, State University \u00abKyiv Aviation Institute\u00bb, Kyiv, Ukraine ORCID ID: 0000-0002-5724-7229 e-mail: hanna.telnova@npp.nau.edu.ua &nbsp; Counter-cyclical Adjustment of the Key Rate During the Crisis: Analysis of the Practice of Countries of<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/counter-cyclical-adjustment-of-the-key\/\" class=\"more\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13475,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[229],"tags":[230],"class_list":["post-20038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-49-2025","tag-49-2025"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20038\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}