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{"id":20891,"date":"2025-12-03T20:16:30","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T18:16:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/?p=20891"},"modified":"2025-12-11T16:01:06","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T14:01:06","slug":"global-changes-in-the-development","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/global-changes-in-the-development\/","title":{"rendered":"Kukina N., Trusova N. Global Changes in the Development of the Export Potential of the Grain Sub-Complex of the Agrarian Sector of Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n\n\n\n
JEL Classification:<\/strong> E22; Q13; Q16; Q55.<\/span><\/i><\/td>\nDOI<\/b>: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V53(2025)-22<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Kukina Natalia, <\/b>PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Marketing, Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological University, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine<\/span><\/p>\n

ORCID:<\/strong> 0000-0003-3204-0624<\/span><\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>kukinanatala81@gmail.com<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Trusova Natalia, <\/b>Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor,\u00a0 Professor of the Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation, Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological University, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine<\/span><\/p>\n

ORCID:<\/strong> 0000-0001-9773-4534<\/span><\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>trusova_natalya5@ukr.net<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Global Changes in the Development of the Export Potential of the Grain Sub-Complex of the Agrarian Sector of Ukraine<\/b><\/h2>\n

Abstract. Introduction<\/i><\/b>. <\/span><\/i>This article examines global changes in the export potential of Ukraine’s agricultural grain sector by identifying their impact on production entities’ foreign trade opportunities. It substantiates that the development of Ukraine’s grain sub-complex is marked by a negative trend during the war period. The dissolution of integrated horizontal-vertical associations formed previously limited the grain sub-complex’s export capacity and decreased the level of intensification of grain and legume crop production.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The purpose<\/i><\/b> of the study is to study global changes in the export potential of the grain subcomplex of the agricultural sector of Ukraine by identifying their impact on the foreign trade opportunities of production entities.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Results<\/i><\/b>. The EU market, a target market for Ukraine’s grain sub-complex and characterized by high capacity and solvency as well as reference standards for competition, quality, and food safety, has been analyzed for its potential to increase the competitiveness of Ukraine’s grain industry. Maintaining monthly grain export rates in the range of 3.5\u20134.0 million tons enables Ukraine to maximize the export potential of the grain sub-complex within the agricultural sector of its economy. The balance of wheat exporting countries’ production and supply to the world market is presented. A dynamic trend of decreasing Ukrainian wheat exports to the world market during the period of martial law in Ukraine has been identified.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Conclusions<\/i><\/b>. The economic instruments for increasing the export potential of the grain sub-complex within Ukraine’s agricultural sector are substantiated. The components of the grain sub-complex’s export potential are identified. These components play an important role in expanding the boundaries of production entities’ foreign economic activity and ensuring support for their foreign trade opportunities in the face of global challenges and changes. The direct dependence of Ukraine’s GDP on the actual volume of exports of grain sub-complex products is determined. Pessimistic and optimistic export forecasts from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are calculated for the near future.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Keywords<\/b>: export potential; global challenges; grain sub-complex; agricultural sector; world market; foreign trade relations.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

References<\/b>:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Avksentieva, I. V. (2006). Assessment of the export potential of the enterprise. <\/span>Economy and the state<\/span><\/i>, 4, 55\u201357.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Andrushko, M.I., Dudyak, R.P., Kolodiychuk, V.A. (2004). Grain-product subcomplex of the agricultural industry as an object of logistics management. <\/span>Bulletin of the National University “Lviv Polytechnic”. Ser. Logistics<\/span><\/i>, 499, 136-140.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Bunyak, N.M. (2019). Mechanism of foreign economic activity in the grain seed market. <\/span>Economy of the agricultural industry<\/span><\/i>, 2, 42\u201347.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Gerushenko,Yu. O. (2016). Export potential of the production sector as a factor in increasing the level of security of the national economy. Lviv: Info-TARA. [in Ukraine]<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. Gumenyuk, Yu.V. (2019). Strategies for the development of the grain-product subcomplex of the agricultural industry to ensure the country’s food security and the comprehensive development of agriculture. <\/span>Bulletin of Khmelnytsky National University<\/span><\/i>, 2, 147\u2013152.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  6. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2023). URL: <\/span>http:\/\/www.ukrstat.gov.ua<\/span><\/li>\n
  7. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). (2023). URL: https:\/\/dzi.gov.ua\/press-centre\/news\/usda-znachno-zbilshyv-prognoz-vyrobnytstva-ta-eksportu-kukurudzy-ukrayinoyu-v-2022-2023-mr\/\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  8. Economy of Ukraine. (2023). URL: <\/span>https:\/\/ces.org.ua\/ukrainian-economy-in-2023-tracker-overview\/<\/span><\/li>\n
  9. Zrailo, I.I. (2018). Substantiation of methodological characteristics of assessing the foreign economic potential of the grain-product subcomplex of the agricultural and industrial complex. <\/span>Bulletin of the Khmelnytsky National University<\/span><\/i>, 2, 39-42.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  10. Kolodiychuk, V.A. (2014). Sectoral positioning of the grain-product subcomplex of the agricultural and industrial complex of Ukraine. <\/span>Economic Journal-XXI<\/span><\/i>, 9-10(1), 45-48.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  11. Mitsenko, N. G., Ivanova, B. V., Shapovalova, E. V. (2019). Formation of the sales potential of domestic enterprises on the European market. <\/span>Bulletin of the Lviv Trade and Economic University. Economic Sciences<\/span><\/i>, 58, 55-62.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  12. Oliynyk, Ya., Zapototskyi, S. (2011). Competitive principles of forming the export potential of regions of Ukraine. <\/span>Bulletin of the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv<\/span><\/i>, 59, 6-10.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  13. World Bank. (2023). URL: <\/span>https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/<\/span><\/li>\n
  14. Semenenko, O.S. (2010). Features of the formation and use of the resource potential of the agricultural sector of the border region. Uzhgorod: TT “Ariadna”. [in Ukraine]<\/span><\/li>\n
  15. Shevchenko, D.M. (2023). Prospects for the post-war restoration of food production. Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference \u201cRecovery and Modernization of the Economy of Ukraine: Challenges, Priorities, Practices\u201d. Kharkiv: VSP \u201cKharkiv Trade and Economic Professional College of DTEU\u201d, 266 p.; pp. 201-203. URL: <\/span>https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/profile\/Irina-Nagorna-2\/publication\/370073155_Donorska_dopomoga_ak_metod_vidnovlenna_ekonomiki_kraini_svitovij_dosvid\/links\/643e3e9ee881690c4be074ad\/Donorska-dopomoga-ak-metod-vidnovlenna-ekonomiki-kraini-svitovij-dosvid.pdf#page=201<\/span> [in Ukraine]<\/span><\/li>\n
  16. Yatsenko, O.M., Nevzlyad, N.G. (2015). Development of the export potential of the agricultural sector of the economy of Ukraine in the context of globalization. <\/span>Foreign trade: economics, finance, law. Series “Economic Sciences”<\/span><\/i>, 3(90), 39\u201348.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Received: <\/strong>15 August<\/span> 2025<\/span><\/p>\n

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    Kukina N., Trusova N. (2025). Global Changes in the Development of the Export Potential of the Grain Sub-Complex of the Agrarian Sector of Ukraine. Modern Economics, 53(2025), 158-166. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V53(2025)-22.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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    [vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] JEL Classification: E22; Q13; Q16; Q55. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V53(2025)-22 [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Kukina Natalia, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Marketing, Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological University, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine ORCID: 0000-0003-3204-0624 e-mail: kukinanatala81@gmail.com Trusova Natalia, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor,\u00a0 Professor of the Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation, Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological
    Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":13475,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[243],"tags":[242],"class_list":["post-20891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-53-2025","tag-53-2025"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20891"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20891\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21261,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20891\/revisions\/21261"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}