{"id":20936,"date":"2025-12-03T20:17:54","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T18:17:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/?p=20936"},"modified":"2025-12-03T22:49:40","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T20:49:40","slug":"inflation-trends-in-ukraine-causes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/inflation-trends-in-ukraine-causes\/","title":{"rendered":"Kuchmiiova T., Movsisian S., Bulgakov G. Inflation Trends in Ukraine: Causes, Consequences, and Ways to Overcome"},"content":{"rendered":"

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JEL Classification:<\/strong> E31; E52; E62; O11; O23<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/i><\/td>\nDOI<\/b>: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V53(2025)-23<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Kuchmiiova Tetiana, <\/b>PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Cybernetics, Computer Sciences and Information Technologies, Mykolaiv Nati\u043enal Agrarian University, Myk\u043elaiv, Ukraine<\/span><\/p>\n

ORCID ID:<\/strong> 0000-0001-5647-8167<\/span><\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>pisochenko@mnau.edu.ua<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Movsisian Sasha, <\/b>Student of the Faculty of Management, Mykolaiv National Agrarian University,Mykolaiv, Ukraine<\/span><\/p>\n

ORCID ID:<\/strong> 0009-0003-6554-3233<\/span><\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>sashamovsisian@gmail.com<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Bulgakov Glib, <\/b>Student of the Faculty of Management, Mykolaiv National Agrarian University,Mykolaiv, Ukraine<\/span><\/p>\n

ORCID ID:<\/strong> 0009-0003-7947-0397<\/span><\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>glebdanb@gmail.com<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Inflation Trends in Ukraine: Causes, Consequences, and Ways to Overcome<\/b><\/h2>\n

Abstract. Introduction<\/i><\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><\/i>Inflation is one of the key macroeconomic indicators that reflects the level of economic stability, purchasing power, and overall welfare of the population. In wartime conditions, inflation in Ukraine has become a complex and multidimensional phenomenon that cannot be fully explained by classical economic models. The combined impact of supply shocks, production losses, logistical disruptions, energy dependence, labor migration, and fiscal expansion has generated strong inflationary pressures and challenged traditional instruments of monetary regulation. Therefore, the study of inflationary processes during the period of economic turbulence is of great theoretical and practical importance.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Purpose<\/i><\/b>. The purpose of the article is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of inflationary trends in Ukraine during the wartime period, to identify the main monetary and non-monetary factors influencing price dynamics, and to determine the effectiveness of state regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing the macroeconomic environment and maintaining price stability.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Results<\/i><\/b>. The research proves that the inflationary processes in Ukraine are driven by a combination of monetary, fiscal, and structural factors operating under conditions of uncertainty and resource constraints. The National Bank of Ukraine has played a decisive role in mitigating inflation through consistent monetary policy, control of the key interest rate, and stabilization of the national currency. Fiscal discipline, international financial assistance, and the gradual restoration of production and logistics capacities have also contributed to curbing price growth. The study emphasizes that the refusal of emission financing, the transition to inflation targeting, and coordination between monetary and fiscal policy were essential to reduce inflationary expectations and restore trust in financial institutions. Structural reforms in the energy and transport sectors, diversification of import supplies, and stimulation of domestic production are identified as long-term instruments for sustainable price stabilization. The findings highlight the importance of integrating short-term anti-inflationary measures with long-term development strategies to achieve balanced economic recovery.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Conclusions<\/i><\/b>. Inflation control in wartime Ukraine requires a comprehensive and adaptive approach that combines monetary, fiscal, and structural policies. The results demonstrate that effective coordination between the government and the central bank, supported by international financial institutions, allows maintaining macrofinancial stability even under exceptional conditions. Achieving sustainable price stability is seen as a strategic goal of Ukraine\u2019s economic policy, forming the basis for post-war recovery, strengthening competitiveness, and ensuring social security. The study concludes that inflation management should not only focus on curbing price dynamics but also on creating favorable conditions for investment, innovation, and inclusive economic growth.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Keywords<\/b>: inflation; monetary policy; price stability; consumer price index; key policy rate; exchange rate; cost-push inflation; macroeconomic stability.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

References<\/b>:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u00a0<\/span> State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2023). <\/span>Indeks spozhyvchykh tsin (infliatsiia) u 2022 rotsi<\/span><\/i> [Consumer Price Index (inflation) in 2022]. <\/span>https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=https:\/\/www.ukrstat.gov.ua\/operativ\/operativ2023\/ct\/is_c\/arh_isc_u.html<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. \u00a0<\/span> Interfax-Ukraine. (2024). <\/span>Spozhyvcha infliatsiia v richnomu vymiri za pidsumkamy 2023 roku spovilnylasia do 5,1%<\/span><\/i> [Consumer inflation in annual terms slowed to 5.1% by the end of 2023]. <\/span>https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=https:\/\/interfax.com.ua\/news\/economic\/960012.html<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. \u00a0<\/span> National Bank of Ukraine. (2023). <\/span>Infliatsiinyi zvit. Kviten 2023 roku<\/span><\/i> [Inflation Report. April 2023]. Kyiv: NBU.<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. \u00a0<\/span> Kriuchkova, I. V. (2021). Makroekonomichni aspekty infliatsii v Ukraini [Macroeconomic aspects of inflation in Ukraine]. <\/span>Ekonomika i prohnozuvannia<\/span><\/i> [Economics and Forecasting], (3), 45\u201360.<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. \u00a0<\/span> Lahutin, V. D. (2020). Infliatsiia i monetarna polityka: suchasni pidkhody [Inflation and monetary policy: modern approaches]. <\/span>Finansy Ukrainy<\/span><\/i> [Finance of Ukraine], (11), 23\u201338.<\/span><\/li>\n
  6. \u00a0<\/span> Baranovskyi, O. I. (2022). Finansova bezpeka derzhavy pid infliatsiinym tyskom [Financial security of the state under inflationary pressure]. <\/span>Ekonomichnyi chasopys-XXI<\/span><\/i> [Economic Annals-XXI], 195(1-2), 15\u201325.<\/span><\/li>\n
  7. \u00a0<\/span> International Monetary Fund. (2023). <\/span>Ukraine: Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility<\/span><\/i>. IMF Country Report No. 23\/129. Washington, D.C.<\/span><\/li>\n
  8. \u00a0<\/span> World Bank. (2023). <\/span>Ukraine Economic Update: Navigating a Long War<\/span><\/i>. Fall 2023. Washington, D.C.<\/span><\/li>\n
  9. \u00a0<\/span> National Bank of Ukraine. (2024). <\/span>Infliatsiinyi zvit. Lypen 2024 roku<\/span><\/i> [Inflation Report. July 2024]. Kyiv: NBU.<\/span><\/li>\n
  10. \u00a0<\/span> Ekonomichna Pravda. (2023). <\/span>NBU u 2022 rotsi \u00abnadrukuvav\u00bb dlia biudzhetu 400 miliardiv hryven<\/span><\/i> [NBU \u00abprinted\u00bb 400 billion hryvnias for the budget in 2022]. <\/span>https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=https:\/\/www.epravda.com.ua\/news\/2023\/01\/2\/695625\/<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  11. \u00a0<\/span> National Bank of Ukraine. (2024). <\/span>Pravlinnia Natsionalnoho banku ukhvalylo rishennia znyzyty oblikovu stavku z 13,5% do 13,0%<\/span><\/i> [The Board of the National Bank decided to reduce the key policy rate from 13.5% to 13.0%]. <\/span>https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=https:\/\/bank.gov.ua\/ua\/news\/all\/pravlinnya-natsionalnogo-banku-uhvalilo-rishennya-zniziti-oblikovu-stavku-z-135-do-130<\/span>.<\/span><\/li>\n
  12. \u00a0<\/span> National Bank of Ukraine. (2024) Inflation Report for October 2024 [Electronic resource]. \u2013 Access mode: <\/span>https:\/\/bank.gov.ua\/ua\/news\/all\/inflyatsiya-pochne-znijuvatisya-z-seredini-roku-a-zrostannya-ekonomiki-prishvidshitsya–inflyatsiyniy-zvit<\/span>.<\/span><\/li>\n
  13. \u00a0<\/span> National Bank of Ukraine. (2025) Comment on inflation level in May and June 2025 [Electronic resource]. \u2013 Access mode: <\/span>https:\/\/bank.gov.ua\/ua\/news\/all\/komentar-natsionalnogo-banku-schodo-rivnya-inflyatsiyi-v-travni-2025-roku<\/span>.<\/span><\/li>\n
  14. \u00a0<\/span> National Bank of Ukraine. (2025) Inflation Report for July 2025: forecast for 2025\u20132026. <\/span>https:\/\/bank.gov.ua\/ua\/news\/all\/inflyatsiya-za-pidsumkami-2025-roku-znizitsya-do-odnoznakovogo-rivnya-a-zrostannya-ekonomiki-trivatime–inflyatsiyniy-zvit<\/span>.<\/span><\/li>\n
  15. \u00a0<\/span> Milman L., Kuchmiiova T. (2023). Financial policy of the state in the context of digitalization of the economy. Digital Economy and Economic Security, (8), 173\u2013177. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.32782\/dees.8-29.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Received: <\/strong>25\u00a0October 2025<\/span><\/p>\n

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    Kuchmiiova T., Movsisian S., Bulgakov G. (2025). Inflation Trends in Ukraine: Causes, Consequences, and Ways to Overcome. Modern Economics, 53(2025), 167-173. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V53(2025)-23.<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=”.vc_custom_1657628632157{margin-top: 10px !important;}”]<< \u041f\u043e\u0432\u0435\u0440\u043d\u0443\u0442\u0438\u0441\u044f \u0434\u043e \u0437\u043c\u0456\u0441\u0442\u0443<\/a>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n<\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    [vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] JEL Classification: E31; E52; E62; O11; O23. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V53(2025)-23 [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Kuchmiiova Tetiana, PhD (Economics), Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Cybernetics, Computer Sciences and Information Technologies, Mykolaiv Nati\u043enal Agrarian University, Myk\u043elaiv, Ukraine ORCID ID: 0000-0001-5647-8167 e-mail: pisochenko@mnau.edu.ua Movsisian Sasha, Student of the Faculty of Management, Mykolaiv National Agrarian University,Mykolaiv, Ukraine ORCID ID: 0009-0003-6554-3233 e-mail:
    Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":13475,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[243],"tags":[242],"class_list":["post-20936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-53-2025","tag-53-2025"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20936"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21128,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20936\/revisions\/21128"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}