Abstract. Introduction. <\/i><\/b>Financial security constitutes a core dimension of a state\u2019s socio-economic resilience, particularly under systemic non-economic shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic and full-scale invasion exposed structural vulnerabilities embedded in public and private finance of Ukraine and intensified causal mechanisms that transform macrofinancial imbalances into security risks. Existing approaches to measuring financial security remain largely descriptive and indicator-driven, focusing on normative comparisons rather than on reconstructing latent causal structures. This limits the explanatory capacity of mainstream positivist diagnostics and obscures the deep mechanisms shaping financial instability.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Purpose<\/i><\/b>. The paper aims to diagnose and reconstruct latent structural factors determining the dynamics of Ukraine\u2019s financial security before and during the full-scale invasion, using the methodological principles of critical realism.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Results<\/i><\/b>. Based on a Principal Component Analysis, five stable structural components were identified, jointly explaining more than 85% of total variance. Their dynamics reveal a long-term erosion of the resource base of the financial system, cyclical instability of the monetary regime, stochastic fiscal capacity dependent on external support, and high socio-behavioural sensitivity of financial inclusion. In contrast, financial infrastructure demonstrates relative adaptive resilience even under existential shocks. The full-scale invasion acted primarily as a catalyst of pre-existing structural imbalances rather than their origin. The analysis confirms that empirical indicators represent surface manifestations of deeper causal mechanisms and should be interpreted as projections of latent financial structures rather than autonomous measures.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Conclusions<\/i><\/b>. The identified component structure provides an analytically grounded basis for reinterpreting financial security as a configuration of interacting structural forces. The findings support the need to integrate advanced diagnostic methods, including likelihood-based reconstruction of causal mechanisms, into financial security governance, particularly in the context of Ukraine\u2019s post-war recovery and long-term resilience planning.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Keywords<\/i><\/b>: State Financial Security; Financial Security Factors; Macrofinancial Imbalances; Factor Analysis; Critical Realism.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

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