{"id":18945,"date":"2024-04-04T10:09:34","date_gmt":"2024-04-04T07:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/?p=18945"},"modified":"2024-04-04T10:09:34","modified_gmt":"2024-04-04T07:09:34","slug":"the-influence-of-economic-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/modecon.mnau.edu.ua\/en\/the-influence-of-economic-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Polchanov A., Vyhovska N., Diachek S., Novak O. The Influence of Economic Growth on the Investment Security of the State in the Conditions of a Military Conflict: the Ukrainian Case"},"content":{"rendered":"

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n\n\n\n
JEL Classification<\/strong>: E27, E29, E62
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		DOI<\/b>: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V43(2024)-12<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Polchanov A.,<\/strong> Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Professor, Associate Professor of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine<\/p>\n

ORCID ID:<\/strong> 0000-0001-6019-9275<\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>polchanov@gmail.com<\/a><\/p>\n

Vyhovska N.<\/strong>, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine<\/p>\n

ORCID ID:<\/strong> 0000-0001-7129-6169<\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>fem_vng@ztu.edu.ua<\/a><\/p>\n

Diachek S.,<\/strong> PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine<\/p>\n

ORCID ID:<\/strong> 0000-0003-2061-9938<\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>djacheksvetlana@ukr.net<\/a><\/p>\n

Novak O.,<\/strong> PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine<\/p>\n

ORCID ID:<\/strong> 0000-0002-5671-0306<\/a>
\ne-mail: <\/strong>novak_os@ukr.net<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

Implementation of the depreciation policy in the formative component\u00a0 of the investment security of enterprises<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Abstract. Introduction<\/strong>. The article examines the question of the influence of economic growth on the investment security of the state in the conditions of a military conflict on the example of Ukraine. The methodological basis of the research were general scientific and special research methods, in particular, methods of theoretical generalization, analysis and synthesis, as well as methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The information base of the study included scientific works, regulatory documents, data of the World Bank Group on changes in the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine for the period 2000-2022, as well as the macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine for 2023-2026.<\/p>\n

Purpose.<\/strong> The purpose of the article is to quantify the influence of economic growth and military conflict on the investment security of Ukraine in 2000-2022 and to forecast its state for the coming years.<\/p>\n

Results.<\/strong> According to the results of critical analysis of scientific works, insufficient attention of researchers to the study of the complex impact of macroeconomic and military-political factors on the investment security of the state was revealed. The tendency of the decrease of the gross fixed capital formation in Ukraine in 2008-2022 and the particularly low value of the corresponding indicator since the beginning of the military conflict in 2014 was revealed. Using correlation-regression analysis, it was possible to determine that GDP growth by 1 percentage point in the current year leads to an increase in GFCF by 0.15 percentage points in the same year and by 0.16 percentage points in the following year (the total cumulative effect is +0.31 percentage points). In addition, other things being equal, the military conflict leads to a decrease in gross fixed capital formation by 4 p.p. This allowed to make a forecast of changes in gross fixed capital formation in Ukraine in 2023-2026 and to reasonably assume a gradual growth of this indicator. In addition, it was established that in order for gross fixed capital formation to exceed the critical level (18% of GDP), the average annual growth rate of Ukrainian GDP under martial law should be at the level of 8.2%.<\/p>\n

Conclusions.<\/strong> To ensure the investment security of Ukraine in the conditions of a military conflict, it is proposed to change the special tax regime of Diya.City. It is recommended to include the export of agricultural and food products, as well as metallurgy, among the qualified activities of Diia.City.<\/p>\n

Keywords:<\/strong> military conflict, economic security, investment, investment security, modelling.<\/p>\n

References:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. World Bank Open Data. (2024). https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/.<\/li>\n
  2. Makarenko, T. E. (2017). Development of franchising in Ukraine as a factor of investment security of the state [PhD thesis, National Institute for Strategic Studies]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0417U006000\/.<\/li>\n
  3. National Bank of Ukraine (2023). Macroeconomic forecast for the January 2024 Inflation Report. https:\/\/bank.gov.ua\/admin_uploads\/article\/Macroeconomic_Forecast_table_2024_01.xlsx?v=7.<\/li>\n
  4. Malyutin, O. K. (2014). Formation of the investment component of the national economic security of Ukraine [Doctoral dissertation, Sumy National Agrarian University]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0514U000743\/.<\/li>\n
  5. Moroz, M.\u00a0O. (2019). Investment security in Ukraine [PhD thesis, State Higher Educational Institution “University of Banking”]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0419U000656\/.<\/li>\n
  6. Moshenskyi, S.\u00a0Z. (2009). Theoretical and Methodological Foundations of Ensuring Investment Security of Ukraine through the Mechanism of Institutional Investment in Securities Markets [Doctoral dissertation, National Institute for International Security Studies of the National Security and Defence Council]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0509U000634\/.<\/li>\n
  7. Nikitenko, D.\u00a0V. (2019). Institutionalisation of investment security in Ukraine [Doctoral dissertation, National University of Water and Environmental Engineering]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0519U000477\/.<\/li>\n
  8. Okhrimovich M.\u00a0M. (2018). Investment security of Ukraine: diagnostics of the state and mechanisms to ensure it [PhD thesis, Lviv State University of Internal Affairs]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0418U005146\/.<\/li>\n
  9. Order of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine (2024). On Approval of Methodological Recommendations for Calculating the Level of Economic Security of Ukraine. \u2116 1277. https:\/\/zakon.rada.gov.ua\/rada\/show\/v1277731-13#Text.<\/li>\n
  10. Sinelnyk, O.\u00a0V. (2004). Investment support for the economic security of the state [PhD thesis, Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0404U003967.<\/li>\n
  11. Tkalenko, S.\u00a0I. (2019). Strategy for ensuring Ukraine’s investment security in the context of European integration [Doctoral dissertation, Chernihiv National Technological University]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0519U000704\/.<\/li>\n
  12. Tokar, V.\u00a0V. (2013). Innovation and investment activity of industrial enterprises in the system of ensuring economic security of the state [Doctoral dissertation, Higher educational institution “KROK University of Economics and Law”]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0513U001295\/.<\/li>\n
  13. Fedorenko, A.\u00a0Ye. (2015). Innovation and investment component of Ukraine’s economic security [PhD thesis, Chernihiv National Technological University]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0415U001887\/.<\/li>\n
  14. Shpakov, V.\u00a0V. (2021). Economic and legal mechanism for ensuring investment security of the state [PhD thesis, Yaroslav the Wise National Law University]. https:\/\/nrat.ukrintei.ua\/searchdoc\/0421U101437\/.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Received:<\/strong> 15 February 2024<\/p>\n

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    Polchanov A., Vyhovska N., Diachek S., Novak O. (2024). The Influence of Economic Growth on the Investment Security of the State in the Conditions of a Military Conflict: the Ukrainian Case. Modern Economics, 43(2024), 89-95. DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V43(2024)-12.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
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    [vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text] JEL Classification: E27, E29, E62 DOI: https:\/\/doi.org\/10.31521\/modecon.V43(2024)-12 [\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]Polchanov A., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Professor, Associate Professor of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6019-9275 e-mail: polchanov@gmail.com Vyhovska N., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University,
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