Kuzmynchuk Nataliia, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Professor of Department of Marketing, Management and Entrepreneurship, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Kharkiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-9844-3429
e-mail: nkuzminchuk@ukr.net

Kutsenko Tetiana, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Associate Department of Marketing, Management and Entrepreneurship, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Kharkiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-7800-2987
e-mail: chkutsenko@gmail.com

Terovanesova Oleksandra, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor Department of Marketing, Management and Entrepreneurship, V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Kharkiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-9323-8699
e-mail: shurochka363@gmail.com

Analytical Support for Export Forecasting of the Industrial Enterprise

Introduction. Using the methods of economic and mathematical modeling for forecasting the products export of industrial enterprises allows expanding the foreign economic potential of domestic producers based on the influence of factors that form potential demand and determine the circle of consumers of manufactured goods.

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to implement the instrument for forecasting the export volumes of the industrial enterprise based on the econometric model, taking into account a set of cause and effect relationships, which in turn will increase the effectiveness of making informed management decisions on managing the foreign economic activity of the power engineering enterprise.

Results. A correlation-regression model was implemented, which laid the foundation for managemenr to implement an effective foreign economic strategy for the enterprise.  A forecast model was built that allowed us to assess the factors of the global energy market that have an impact on the dynamics of export volumes and, in particular, improve the approaches to making managerial decisions in the field of foreign economic activity based on the results of economic and mathematical modeling. We establish that the main reserve for the enterprise export growth under study is associated with electricity production increasing in thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants. Considering the results of analysis of the global energy market, it is advisable to focus on the growing demand for hydraulic turbines, combined gas and steam turbines, and introduce the new technologies for the equipment production for renewable electricity.

Conclusions. According to the results of the research, we establish that effective managerial influences should be based on the application of the econometric modeling methods and should be aimed at increasing the production of products in demand on the world energy market, taking into account the trends of its development.  The use of correlation-regression modeling has allowed us to solve the key tasks of the study and to identify the factors that have the greatest influence on the dynamics of export volume. Thus, the proposed toolkit will allow the power engineering company to formulate the most effective foreign economic strategy based on the results of economic and mathematical modeling, because it explains what factors have the greatest impact on the results of foreign economic activity.

Keywords: power engineering enterprise, the world energy market; correlation-regression model; management decisions in the field of foreign economic activity.

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