Reshetnyak O., PhD in Economics, Doctoral Student at the Research Centre for Industrial Problems of Development of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-1183-302X
e-mail: olena.reshetnyak@karazin.ua

Choice of Foresight Methods to Substantiate Directions of Scientific Development

Abstract. Introduction. The article substantiates the need to use foresight in determining the directions of scientific development. The methodology of long-term vision of the future, called “foresight” in connection with the need to substantiate the priorities of scientific development, is spreading all over the world

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study the methods used in the world foresight in order to select the most appropriate to justify the directions of scientific development of Ukraine.

Results. The methods used during foresight research are analyzed. It is determined which foresight methods are used most often in anticipation of the future. The research of frequency of use of various foresight methods depending on the location of the country-developer of foresight, as well as the intensity of costs of research and development work and the period of prediction. The frequency of use of individual foresight methods to achieve specific results of prediction, the sector of the economy. It is proved that the rationale for the choice of foresight methods determines the quality, reliability, consistency and completeness of the prediction process. Forsight methods, which have been analyzed, indicate that during the prediction of the future combinations of several methods are used, which determine the level of achievement of foresight goals, the possibility of using the results in the management of the socio-economic state of research areas, including the sphere of science and technology. The conducted research allows the foresight methodology to determine the directions of scientific development of Ukraine, which includes such methods and techniques of research.

Conclusions. Further research should be directed to the dissemination of foresight methodology in the long-term forecasting of scientific and technological development of Ukraine, which will not only determine the priority areas of scientific development in the country, but also to provide for the main trends in technological development, to identify the most acute problems of long-term nature in economic development.

Keywords: foresight, foresight methods, scientific development, anticipation, forecasting.

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