Dmytriieva Viktoriia, PhD, Associate Professor of Information Systems and Technologies Department, Dnipro State Agrarian and Economic University, Dnipro, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-2410-4504
e-mail: dmytriieva.va@dsau.dp.ua

Economic capacity of the population in conditions of financial stress in Ukraine

Abstract. Introduction. The consequences of both systemic and local economic crises are dangerous for the national economy on the whole and for the population particularly. Crises can have different effects, such as default in a country, bankruptcy of enterprises, huge cash outflow from the bank system, insolvency of the households, and problems of self-providing with vital goods and services, and, therefore, all this can lead to social tension and an increase in social instability. The history of post-Soviet independent Ukraine is known for three critical periods: the crisis of the 1990’s, associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union; the global financial crisis of 2008-2009; and the crisis of 2014-2015, connected with the aggression of a foreign country. All three crises have caused a decline in the living standards of the Ukrainian people and reduced the country’s financial capacity. It is known that the population generates prejudice to some products and services, can cause panic or demand overflow, and to a certain extent causes the growth or decline of tension in the country’s economic and social activity. The study of households’ reaction to changes in financial conditions is one of the topical issues, given that the financial capacity of the population is an indicator and a source of changes in the life of the country.

Purpose. To analyze and identify the specific features of the impact of financial stress on the behavior and financial capacity of the population in Ukraine.

Results. The indicator of financial stress (IFS) and the official exchange rate of the currency did not correlate with each other during 2008-2018. As revealed, tendencies of the IFS level and hryvnia value had got different directions in their development dependently on the certain periods. The decline of employee income levels were noticed in the stress periods of 2008-2009 and 2014-2015. The unemployment level increased in 2009 and 2014. It has not returned the previous position since 2014. Now the unemployment level is about 10%.  The quantity of people dismissed through the economic reasons rose in 2009 and 2015. The decrease of the average salary, caused by a rise in the unemployment level, led to the falling down of self-provision with food in appropriate quality. The population in Ukraine is active in the sale and purchasing of foreign currency. In 2017 and 2018 the amount of currency exchanges went up sharply. That could mean the hidden inflation of Ukrainian hryvnia or people’s intention to save extra money in a more stable currency. Simultaneously, the population’s willingness to buy more stable foreign currencies depends on salary levels. Ukrainians believe in the constantly increasing value of the dollar and therefore prefer to earn or save money through operations with foreign currency.

Conclusions. In Ukraine, economic crises impact the financial capacity of the population, which led to income declines, unemployment increases and a deterioration of nutrition quality. Besides, the specificity and frequency of financial shocks in Ukraine caused a certain model of behavior in the population. They have created distrust in households to the stability of our own national currency.

Keywords: financial stress; exchange rate; unemployment; food supply; the volume of sale and purchase by individuals of foreign currency; latent inflation; dynamics; trend.

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