Ivanov Andrii, PhD in Economics, Professor of the Department of Entrepreneurship and Tourism, Odessa National Maritime University, Odesa, Ukraine. Doctorate, State University of Trade and Economics, Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-7691-3012
e-mail: andriy5555@i.ua

Modelling the performance of enterprises of the tourist and recreational complex of Ukraine

Abstract. Introduction. The socio-economic development of Ukraine is possible due to the effective functioning of the enterprises of the tourism and recreation complex. However, today there is a very negative situation regarding the functioning of the TEC both at the regional and national levels, which is caused by the deterioration of the economic performance of the enterprises of the TEC, which has resulted in a significant decrease of the country’s GDP.

Purpose. selection and application of a model for calculation and determination of the level of efficiency of the enterprises of the tourism and recreation complex of Ukraine.

Results. The efficiency of the enterprises that are part of the TEC is studied using regression analysis and the scatterplot model, which allowed to investigate their place and role in the GDP of Ukraine through the indicators of tourist tax and investment as a result of the efficiency of these enterprises.

Conclusions. The analysis of Ukraine’s GDP, tourist tax and capital investments received from the activities of enterprises of shopping and entertainment complexes for 2016-2022, carried out by means of the Cobb-Douglas functional model, allows us to draw the following conclusions 1) The elasticity of GDP in relation to the tourist tax received from the activities of the enterprises of the shopping and entertainment complex is 5.49. A 1% increase in the tourist tax leads to a 5.49% increase in GDP. The same trend is observed with a decrease in the tourist tax; 2) The elasticity of GDP with respect to investment in the operation of the enterprises of the shopping center is 0.99. A 1% increase in investment leads to a 0.99% increase in GDP. The same trend is observed when the volume of investment decreases; 3) to assess the accuracy of the model and the closeness of the relationship, it is advisable to use a multiple correlation coefficient. In 76% of cases changes in the volume of tourist tax and capital investments received as a result of the activities of the enterprises of the shopping and entertainment complex lead to changes in the volume of the GDP of Ukraine. This means that the accuracy of the model is quite high. The remaining 24% of the change in Ukraine’s GDP is explained by factors not considered in the model; 4) the model of the Cobb-Douglas function is adequate to the original data, and the coefficient of determination is statistically significant, since the calculated value of the Fisher criterion is 6.9912 with a probability of 0.95 exceeds the table value of 6.94 (0.05; 2; 4). Therefore, the estimation of the multivariate regression equation is statistically reliable.

Keywords: enterprises of the tourist and recreational complex; tourist and recreational complex; tourist tax; capital investments; multiplier model; Cobb-Douglas production function.

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