Pas Yaruna, graduate student of the Department of Banking and Insurance Business, Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, Lviv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-3675-2015
e-mail: yaruna86@ukr.net

Semulative Model of Banking Business Development

Abstract. Introduction. Research on the development of the banking business should be carried out using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling, the main feature of which is the use of indirect cognition with the help of artificially created objects – models. The need to use modeling as a scientific method is determined by the fact that many aspects related to these objects are almost impossible to explore, or such an analysis requires a lot of time and money. To better understand the importance of modeling the development of the banking business, it is appropriate to give an example, the development and application of the wrong strategy for the development of the banking business can cause significant problems not only in this area, including reduced liquidity of the banking system. From the tools of economic and mathematical modeling to study the development of the banking business, it is necessary to use econometric methods and models. This is because the behavior of the banking business is random. Meanwhile, econometric models are the most common type of socio-economic models used to analyze the integrated development of the banking business.

Purpose. Research of indicators between variables of the semulative model of banking business development, carrying out the specification and construction of the semulative model of banking business development.

Results. A semulative model of banking business development is proposed, which includes six equations: equation of capital and reserves of banks, equation of total assets of banks, equation of bank loans (except for special reserves), equation of bank income, equation of banks’ costs, gross domestic product equation. The analysis of adequacy of the constructed model by means of F-Fisher is carried out.

Conclusions. A semulative model of banking business development has been built and studied, which makes it possible to determine the structure of relationships between the performance indicators of the banking sector of Ukraine and environmental factors. The determining factors influencing the development of the banking business are analyzed.

Keywords: banking business; development of banking business; modeling of development of banking business; semulative model; equation of semulative model.

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