Polchanov A., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Professor, Associate Professor of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-6019-9275
e-mail: polchanov@gmail.com

Vyhovska N., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-7129-6169
e-mail: fem_vng@ztu.edu.ua

Diachek S., PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2061-9938
e-mail: djacheksvetlana@ukr.net

Novak O., PhD (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor of Department of Finance and Digital Economy, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-5671-0306
e-mail: novak_os@ukr.net

Implementation of the depreciation policy in the formative component  of the investment security of enterprises

Abstract. Introduction. The article examines the question of the influence of economic growth on the investment security of the state in the conditions of a military conflict on the example of Ukraine. The methodological basis of the research were general scientific and special research methods, in particular, methods of theoretical generalization, analysis and synthesis, as well as methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The information base of the study included scientific works, regulatory documents, data of the World Bank Group on changes in the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine for the period 2000-2022, as well as the macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine for 2023-2026.

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to quantify the influence of economic growth and military conflict on the investment security of Ukraine in 2000-2022 and to forecast its state for the coming years.

Results. According to the results of critical analysis of scientific works, insufficient attention of researchers to the study of the complex impact of macroeconomic and military-political factors on the investment security of the state was revealed. The tendency of the decrease of the gross fixed capital formation in Ukraine in 2008-2022 and the particularly low value of the corresponding indicator since the beginning of the military conflict in 2014 was revealed. Using correlation-regression analysis, it was possible to determine that GDP growth by 1 percentage point in the current year leads to an increase in GFCF by 0.15 percentage points in the same year and by 0.16 percentage points in the following year (the total cumulative effect is +0.31 percentage points). In addition, other things being equal, the military conflict leads to a decrease in gross fixed capital formation by 4 p.p. This allowed to make a forecast of changes in gross fixed capital formation in Ukraine in 2023-2026 and to reasonably assume a gradual growth of this indicator. In addition, it was established that in order for gross fixed capital formation to exceed the critical level (18% of GDP), the average annual growth rate of Ukrainian GDP under martial law should be at the level of 8.2%.

Conclusions. To ensure the investment security of Ukraine in the conditions of a military conflict, it is proposed to change the special tax regime of Diya.City. It is recommended to include the export of agricultural and food products, as well as metallurgy, among the qualified activities of Diia.City.

Keywords: military conflict, economic security, investment, investment security, modelling.

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