Hurina O., Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, The Head of the Department of Finace and Accounting, Mykolaiv National University named after V.O. Sukhomlynsky, Mykolayiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-6315-6067
e-mail: gurina161277@gmail.com

Adaptive models for forecasting the financial support of regional development

Abstract. Introduction. Adaptive models provide for the possibility to forecast financial and economic indicators in the short term, provided that a small amount of statistical data is available. The most common adaptive forecasting models are Brown, Holt, Holt-Winters, Box-Jenkins, autoregressive and other models. We believe that the use of adaptive forecasting models becomes especially important in the context of constant changes in the external environment and instability of economic and political situation.

Purpose. The purpose of this article is to forecast based on basic adaptive models of the level of financial support for regional development in the short term.

Results. It is noted that improving the effectiveness of regional development is facilitated by the formation of an optimal model of its financing. In the conditions of environmental variability, it is necessary to approach the issues of development and implementation of financial plans especially carefully. The optimality of financial planning is determined by the degree of achievement of the accuracy of the forecast level of the planned indicators.

With the help of the basic adaptive model of Brown the forecasting level of financial provision of regional development for the nearest future is made. One-dimensional time series was selected as the information base of the study, which reflected the results of the implementation of the local budget revenue part of the Mykolaiv area.

Conclusions. In the course of the research, the thesis about the optimality of financial planning was substantiated, it was shown that it can be determined by the degree of accuracy of the forecast level of the planned indicators. The effectiveness of Brown’s adaptive model for short-term planning of regional development financial support has been proved. The proposed model has been tested for adequacy, and on its basis recommendations for further application in practice of regional development financing planning have been developed.

Keywords: adaptive models; regional development; financial support; forecasting; financial planning.

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