Mazhara Glib, PhD in Economics, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economic Cybernetics, National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0003-2753-3600

e-mail: SkyDoor13@gmail.com

Yarmolenko P. 4th year student, Department of Economic Cybernetics, National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0009-0003-0793-7197

e-mail: yarmolapolinka@gmail.com

Adaptive Pricing Modeling of an Enterprise under Economic Turbulence: Forecasting and Risk Analysis

Abstract. Introduction. The study of adaptive pricing policy modeling focuses on identifying an effective price formation strategy at the enterprise level that takes into account the volatility of key macroeconomic indicators. This issue is particularly relevant during periods of economic turbulence when traditional fixed pricing mechanisms are ineffective.

Purpose. The goal of the study is to develop a flexible and responsive pricing model that allows companies to adjust their pricing strategies in response to external market changes. The research focuses on enterprises operating under conditions of high uncertainty, inflation, interest rate shifts, and unstable demand, especially in transition economies.

Methods. The study is based on economic-mathematical modeling tools, including multifactor regression analysis and time series forecasting. The conceptual foundations partially originate from Karl Marx’s theoretical exploration of value and price formation in Das Kapital. While Marx did not provide applied models, his ideas have contributed to our understanding of how external economic forces influence prices.

Implementation. The author developed an original pricing model using historical data from the PwC audit firm in Ukraine for the years 2022–2024. The model was implemented in Python and Excel environments to ensure the accuracy and flexibility of simulations under various economic scenarios. The calculations included the impact of inflation, changes in demand, and the impact of central bank interest rate policy on setting prices for professional services.

Keywords: pricing; modeling; economic turbulence; adaptive strategy; inflation; demand; discount rate.

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