Abramova Maryna, PhD (Economics), Senior Researcher, Senior Researcher at the Central Research Institute of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-7644-9988
e-mail: Elaira3@gmail.com

Khomych Denys, student at the Institute of Logistics and Support of Troops of the National Defense University of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0009-0008-2443-7019
e-mail: denil2000@ukr.net

Kaspruk Andriy, student at the Institute of Logistics and Support of Troops of the National Defense University of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0009-0000-3840-1473
e-mail: kasprukav88@ukr.net

Mankov Dmytro, student at the Institute of Logistics and Support of Troops of the National Defense University of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0009-0005-4447-6945
e-mail: mankov1985@ukr.net

Paslavskyi Mykola, student at the Institute of Logistics and Support of Troops of the National Defense University of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0009-0006-9057-6450
e-mail: n.paslavskiі@gmail.com

The Importance of Taking Into Account the Results of Additive Modeling During Dynamics Process Analyzing

Abstract. Introduction. To address current threats of international instability, it is important to understand the analytical tools and methods that researchers should use. This article aims to inform a wide range of scholars about the relevance of the problem of timely detection of international instability and more efficient search for ways out of possible crisis situations.  Some countries employ game theory to identify instability in political institutions and conditions. For instance, in the context of the trade war between the United States and China, this theory was proposed to analyze the distribution of benefits from the conflict. Furthermore, game theory has been used to model conflicts between Iran and its neighbors, such as Qatar and Iraq, over shared oil and gas resources. Network analysis can be used to identify key stakeholders in a given situation, (e.g. in Latin America it was used to study the impact of COVID-19). Conflict analysis, which studies the nature and causes of conflicts to identify possible solutions, has led advanced countries like the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom to draw conclusions about stakeholder and business relations.

Purpose. Through historical analysis, we can identify trends and possible future scenarios by studying past events and patterns; and by comparing political, economic, and social systems of different countries, we can identify similarities and differences that can shed light on the causes of instability (For example, Argentina used historical analysis to study its own political dysfunction and its impact on regional stability). And comparative foreign policy analysis has been used to study foreign policy decision-making processes in different countries (To study the relationship between economic growth patterns and income inequality, a framework analysis was conducted comparing the experiences of nine purposively selected countries, including Chile, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, and others).

Results. Special emphasis is placed on quantitative and qualitative research methods. These include: statistical analysis (which involves collecting and analyzing large amounts of data on past events to identify patterns and trends that may contribute to current or future instability); mathematical modeling (which involves creating mathematical models that simulate potential scenarios and outcomes based on various factors and variables); and data visualization (which involves presenting data in a visual format, such as graphs, charts, and maps, to help convey complex information and ideas). In recent years, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan have developed advanced classifiers that are useful for accurately and effectively predicting terrorist organizations responsible for attacks. Second, research for IW analysis includes case studies of specific conflicts or instabilities, as well as content analysis and interviews with key stakeholders and international relations experts. The United States Institute of Peace, Germany, and the United Kingdom make extensive use of qualitative models to predict instability around the world.

Conclusions. The main problems (shortcomings) of their use identified by the authors in this paper have become the basis for developing appropriate recommendations for finding ways to mitigate (reduce) them, namely: taking into account the cultural context, prioritizing the use of multidisciplinary approaches, integrating real-time data, focusing on long-term trends, using advanced data analysis and visualization methods. These recommendations can be used to develop a universal strategy for combining and using analytical tools and methods for studying international instability, taking into account the relevant recommendations proposed by the authors in the paper.

Keywords: international instability; foreign states; analytical tools; globalization; sustainability; destabilization; international relations.

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