Eduard Zaiats, Postgraduate student of the Department of Banking, Odesa National Economic University, Odesa, Ukraine

ORCID: 0009-0006-6110-8033
e-mail: zaiats_eduard@ukr.net

Business Model Identification of Ukrainian Banks During 2022–2024: Challenges, Adaptation, and Future Outlook

Abstract. Introduction. This article explores how Ukrainian banks have transformed their business models during the period from 2022 to 2024 amid profound economic, social, and political upheaval caused by the full-scale war in Ukraine. The topic’s relevance is determined by the urgent need for banks to promptly respond to external challenges and revise their strategic orientations to ensure the banking sector’s resilience, profitability, and effectiveness.

Purpose. The primary objective is to identify, classify, and analyze the business models of Ukrainian banks from 2022 to 2024, trace their evolution in response to external shocks, and outline the prospects for developing the banking system in the postwar period.

Object. The study focuses on the formation of Ukrainian banks’ business models and aims to identify and classify the dominant types during the specified period. Additionally, it seeks to analyze the key factors contributing to their transformation. The research is theoretically founded on modern approaches to strategic management, banking operations, and economic-statistical modeling.

Results. The study uses hierarchical cluster analysis — specifically, Ward’s method — and the k-means method in the STATISTICA software environment to identify and verify banks’ business models. These models are based on indicators that reflect the specifics of their operational activity. The analysis used monthly supervisory statistics from the National Bank of Ukraine. Key indicators included the proportion of loans, deposits, investment portfolios, and interbank operations within the banks’ balance sheets. The analysis covered 67 banks classified into six business models: corporate, retail, universal, investment, investment with capital funding, and traditional.

Conclusions. The results indicate a growing trend toward universal business models as an adaptive response to rising economic uncertainty, changes in demand for financial services, and digital transformation. At the same time, the proportion of banks highly dependent on investment activity is increasing, requiring greater regulatory oversight.

Keywords: bank; bank business model; bank migration; bank clustering; factor symptoms.

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