Trusova Natalia, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Professor of the Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation, Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological University, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-9773-4534
e-mail: trusova_natalya5@ukr.net

Stepaniuk Roman, graduate student of the third (educational and scientific) level of higher education, Dmytro Motornyi Tavria State Agrotechnological University, Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine

ORCID ID: 0009-0005-1499-5496
e-mail: ekonomyst-8105@ukr.net

Export Potential of the Agricultural Sector of Ukraine Under the Global Regulation of International Trade

Abstract. Introduction. Global changes in the development of the export potential of the agricultural sector of Ukrainian economy have been studied. The economic toolkit of the export potential of the agricultural sector of Ukrainian economy has been implemented through the identification of its components according to the sectoral direction of product distribution. Methodical approaches to the estimation of the export potential of the agricultural sector in the conditions of the global regulation of international trade are considered.

Results. Stimulating determinants of the increase of the export potential of the agricultural sector of the economy of Ukraine are determined taking into account the regulatory mechanism of the international trade of grain producing entities. The mechanism of ensuring the global competitive positions of the country’s agricultural sector on the international market, using the services of specialized export-logistic agencies, has been developed. A system of indicators has been created for assessing the export potential of the agricultural sector according to the industrial direction of product placement. The share of exports of products of Ukrainian grain production units in the overall structure of export-import transactions with the EU was determined, and the monthly volumes of Ukraine’s export chain on the international market were analyzed.  

Conclusions. The globalization balance of wheat supply in eight exporting countries and their real state on the international market are given. The forecast of foreign exchange earnings from the realization of the export potential of the agricultural sector of Ukraine according to the sectoral distribution of production in the medium-term perspective was made, taking into account objective factors and geopolitical risks. The tendency to decrease the export of Ukrainian wheat and corn on the international market is predicted due to the state of war in Ukraine. A pessimistic-optimistic scenario of the growth (decrease) of the GDP of Ukraine at the lower and upper limits of the export potential of the agricultural sector according to the sectoral direction of grain production is given.

Keywords: export potential; agrarian sector of the economy; branch of agriculture; export quota; subjects of grain production.

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