Danylchenko Artem, applicant for the third (educational and scientific) level of higher education, National Transport University, Kyiv, Ukraine

ORCID: 0009-0004-6903-779X
e-mail: Artem.danylchenko@hotmail.com

Structural Transformation of Ukraine’s Retail Real Estate Market in the Context of Risk Management for Development Projects

Abstract. Introduction. The article examines current trends in the development of the Ukrainian retail real estate sector under conditions of economic instability and wartime challenges. The study highlights the key problems faced by development companies, including unstable consumer demand, increasing project implementation costs, a shortage of qualified personnel, and the need to optimize tenant structures. It is established that traditional retail real estate development models focused on rapid expansion and rental income growth are losing their effectiveness and require transformation.

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to identify the current trends and strategic directions for the development of retail real estate in Ukraine, as well as to determine the factors influencing the efficiency of development companies under modern economic conditions.

Results. The stages of development of Ukrainian development companies are analyzed, from the period of intensive market growth before 2008, supported by accessible external financing, through the transformations following the global financial crisis, which reduced investment activity and increased project risks. It is determined that during 2010–2019 the market gradually recovered but remained vulnerable to economic and political fluctuations. The research substantiates that the current stage of retail real estate development is characterized by a transition to a more pragmatic management model focused on operational efficiency, a stable tenant pool, and predictable cash flows. The study identifies a shift in development activity toward compact retail formats, particularly neighborhood shopping centers and retail parks, designed to satisfy local consumer demand. Changes in consumer behavior and the evolving role of shopping centers as multifunctional public spaces supporting social and cultural activities are also identified. Particular attention is paid to the major risks affecting development projects, including rising construction costs, increased safety and energy independence requirements, and labor shortages in the construction industry.

Conclusions. It is concluded that the future development of the Ukrainian retail real estate market depends on the transition from extensive expansion to a demand-oriented management model based on tenant mix optimization, integration of retail facilities into everyday consumer behavior, and comprehensive investment risk management. These approaches will contribute to increasing the resilience and long-term competitiveness of development companies in the current economic environment.

Keywords: market, commercial real estate, Ukraine, risk management, development projects.

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