Dubinina Maryna, Doctor of Sciences in Economics, Professor, Head of Department of Accounting and Taxation, Mykolayiv National Agrarian University, Mykolayiv, Ukraine

ORCID: 0000-0002-3993-0622
e-mail: dubinina@mnau.edu.ua

Bodnar Olena., PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance, Mykolaiv National Agrarian University, Mykolaiv, Ukraine

ORCID: 0000-0002-0152-4290
e-mail: bodnaroa@ mnau.edu.ua

Identification and Calibration of Non-Financial Threats in the System of Ensuring the Financial Reliability of Commercial Banks

Abstract. Introduction. The growing uncertainty of the banking environment, the intensification of external shocks, digital transformation, ESG requirements, and war-related challenges increase the importance of non-financial threats to the stability of commercial banks. Such threats do not necessarily have an immediate monetary manifestation, but may be transmitted into credit, operational, compliance, reputational, and other risks and ultimately affect the financial reliability of banking institutions. This requires the development of approaches that allow banks not only to identify non-financial threats but also to determine their managerial significance and select appropriate response measures.

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to develop the theoretical and methodological foundations for identifying non-financial threats and to substantiate an approach to their calibration within the system of ensuring the financial reliability of commercial banks, taking into account the channels through which non-financial factors are transmitted into financial risks and the actual practices applied by Ukrainian banks.

Results. The study clarifies the distinction between a non-financial factor, a non-financial threat, and risk and substantiates the transmission nature of their impact on banking performance. Non-financial threats are systematized into environmental and climate-related, social and personnel-related, governance and compliance-related, operational and technological, and war- and security-related groups. The practices of OTP Bank, PrivatBank, and Ukrgasbank are comparatively analysed with regard to borrower assessment, credit analysis, internal control, corrective measures, and risk monitoring. The analysis shows that banks already differentiate managerial responses depending on the materiality of identified non-financial threats, although such procedures are not always formally defined as calibration. An approach to calibration based on four characteristics is proposed: materiality of potential impact, level of exposure, nature of transmission into financial risk, and controllability of the threat. Four levels of managerial significance are distinguished: acceptable, controlled, material, and critical. Appropriate managerial responses are defined for each level, ranging from standard monitoring to enhanced assessment, corrective action plans, additional financing conditions, restrictions, or refusal to finance. War- and security-related factors are proposed to be considered as modifiers capable of increasing the level of previously identified non-financial threats.

Conclusions. The proposed approach makes it possible to link the identification of non-financial threats with specific managerial decisions without excessive mathematical formalisation. Its application can strengthen the preventive orientation of security-oriented management and improve the use of non-financial information in credit analysis, risk monitoring, and decision-making aimed at maintaining the financial reliability of commercial banks under conditions of prolonged uncertainty.

Keywords: security-oriented management; commercial bank management; commercial banks; risk management; financial management.

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