Posnova Tetiana, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor, Private Higher Educational Institution “European University”

ORCID: 0000-0003-2038-7743
e-mail: tatosnova@gmail.com

Shcherbatykh Denys, Ph.D. in Economics, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Private Higher Education Establishment “European University”

ORCID: 0000-0003-0990-8376
e-mail: denys.shcherbatykh@e-u.edu.ua

Remyha Yuliia, Candidate in Economics, Associate Professor Head of the Department of Management and Logistics Private Higher Educational Establishment “European University”

ORCID: 0000-0001-7162-5081
e-mail: yuliia.remyha@e-u.edu.ua

Macroeconomic Determinants of the Formation and Recovery of Human Capital

Abstract. Introduction. In the context of demographic decline, large-scale external migration, labor market imbalances, and severe fiscal constraints caused by war and prolonged instability, the formation and reproduction of human capital in Ukraine increasingly depend on macroeconomic determinants. GDP dynamics, employment structure, income levels, and public expenditure priorities shape not only the scale of investment in education and healthcare but also the qualitative characteristics of human capital and its capacity to generate long-term economic growth and structural modernization.

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the role of macroeconomic factors in the formation and restoration of human capital under systemic demographic and migration challenges and to determine priority directions for improving macroeconomic policy aimed at strengthening its recovery potential in the medium and long term.

Results. The research demonstrates that demographic contraction and external migration significantly reduce labor supply, narrow the tax base, and lower potential GDP. It identifies fiscal limitations, structural labor market mismatches, and institutional fragmentation as major barriers to effective human capital policy. Current state strategies are found to be weakly integrated with fiscal planning and insufficiently linked to productivity, innovation dynamics, and long-term growth indicators.

Conclusions. Effective restoration of human capital requires a transition from a socially compensatory approach to an integrated macroeconomic framework aligned with fiscal, demographic, and employment policies. Human capital should be treated as a strategic driver of sustainable economic growth, productivity enhancement, macroeconomic resilience, and national competitiveness.

Keywords: human capital; recovery; macroeconomic determinants; demographic decline; external migration.

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