Vlasenko Lev, Ph.D. (Economics), Visiting Professor of Business Administration Department, State University of New York at Potsdam (SUNY Potsdam), United States

ORCID ID: 0000-0002-7723-1734
e-mail: vlasenl@potsdam.edu

The Structure of the Ukrainian Foreign Trade and its Development after the Russian Invasion

Abstract. Introduction. The Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022 not only disrupted existing international markets and dealt a severe blow to the post-COVID recovery of the global economy, but also highlighted Ukraine’s role as a supplier of food and agricultural commodities. Following the start of the invasion, numerous articles were published by international organizations and independent scholars attempting to predict or model the impact of the war on food prices, exploring worst-case scenarios of global or local food shortages or even famine. However, most of the research on this topic has focused on the impact of disrupted trade on the global food market and its effect on the economies of Third World countries in Africa and Asia. In contrast, the impact of the war on the Ukrainian economy is often overlooked.

Purpose. The article aims to analyze contemporary international trade in Ukraine and structural changes in Ukrainian export and import patterns after the annexation of Crimea and the Donbass conflict in 2014, and after the start of the Russian invasion in 2022. The article aims to identify possible threats and provide recommendations to minimize the negative impact of trade on the Ukrainian economy. The author used several methods to achieve these goals, including the quantitative analysis of export and import flows, the decomposition of exports at the technology level, the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index, and the Trade Complementarity Index for Ukraine and the European Union.

Results. The conducted analysis proves the serious changes in Ukrainian trade patterns due to the collapse of several industries caused by the Russian aggression and the increasing role of agriculture and food industry, which will shape the future of the Ukrainian economy in the next decade.

Conclusion. To fully realize its potential as a producer and exporter of agricultural products, Ukraine must liberate the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts. The renewal of Ukraine’s foreign trade is possible only by liberating the coastal regions of southern Ukraine.

Keywords: International trade; Export structure; Revealed Comparative Advantage; Trade Complementarity Index; Ukraine.

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